The federal government is preparing for a probable shutdown as President Donald Trump and leaders in Congress were unable to finalize a budget agreement during discussions on Monday (Sept. 29).
This funding shortfall would mark the first during Trump’s second term, although not the first in the nation’s history. During Trump’s first term, the government experienced its longest shutdown ever (35 days) due to disputes over funding for Trump’s U.S.-Mexico border wall, which the Congressional Budget Office estimated cost the U.S. economy $3 billion.
This year’s financial plan relies on both parties reaching a consensus on extending Affordable Care Act subsidies, a point of disagreement within Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill. Senate Democrats have already turned down a temporary funding proposal led by Republicans that would extend the current budget for seven weeks, standing resolutely on Medicaid.
Republican leaders, who possess a majority in both the House and Senate, accuse Democrats of holding the budget hostage. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development’s homepage states: “The Radical Left intend to shut down the government and cause significant harm to the American populace unless they receive their $1.5 trillion wish list of demands.”
If the situation is not resolved by the deadline (Sept. 30 at midnight), federal expenditures will cease, and services will function with limited personnel and funding.
What a shutdown entails for federal agencies
In a departure from past shutdowns, the White House has threatened to reduce the federal workforce if a shutdown takes place, with Trump indicating that thousands of permanent positions could be jeopardized without a deal. The administration has already let go of thousands of workers, with another 100,000 projected to resign today.
Most employees, excluding lawmakers on Capitol Hill, will be furloughed or work without compensation. Salaries for approximately 4 million federal workers, including active service members and National Guard troops, will be delayed until a new budget is established. Hundreds of thousands will continue as unpaid essential personnel — over 300,000 were furloughed during the last shutdown in early 2019.
Vital services such as Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid will persist, albeit with slower processes and potential pauses in applications. Regulatory bodies like the FDA and CDC will suspend certain operations, diminishing necessary staffing levels. TSA and air traffic personnel will operate without pay. The U.S. Postal Service, border patrol, and law enforcement are expected to remain unaffected.
Federal employee unions, including the AFGE, caution that a halt could threaten financial, medical, and food security for federal employees, denouncing the suggested mass layoffs as an illegal maneuver by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB).
How a shutdown may affect individuals and online services
For the majority of citizens, a brief shutdown may pose a minor inconvenience, but a prolonged lapse could yield wider repercussions.
Most online functionalities will proceed, including the submission options for federal benefits and documents such as travel visas, although timely receipt cannot be guaranteed. SNAP and WIC benefits might be delayed if the USDA experiences slow processing of new forms. Non-automated IRS collections and refunds would be affected due to limited staffing. Immigration and travel services like the E-Verify process for new hires may be halted.
Other services, such as call centers and hotlines, could be interrupted. Conservation organizations have called for the closure of National Parks if employees are furloughed, recalling vandalism during the 2019 shutdown. This has previously jeopardized events like Fat Bear Week at Katmai National Park and Preserve in Alaska. Typically, agencies like the National Park Service cease social media updates during a shutdown.
Alongside strained services and effects on federally funded programs, federal websites and national cybersecurity could deteriorate due to staff and funding shortfalls. In 2019, security firm Netcraft reported numerous expired security certificates for .gov websites, rendering them “insecure or inaccessible.” The Department of Homeland Security’s cybersecurity agency faced a reduction in staff, and experts cautioned that ongoing understaffing could endanger public safety, unable to verify federal websites. Previous lapses also caused delays in elections system security assessments and cybersecurity research.
This time, the DHS’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) may be cut down to 35 percent of its current workforce. Additionally at stake is the 2015 Cybersecurity Information Sharing Act, which promotes cyber threat information sharing between private sector entities and the government and is due to expire.