Polymarket. Kalshi. Truth Social?
Donald Trump’s social media network is venturing into the prediction market arena. On Monday, Trump Media and Technology Group Corp., the parent entity of Truth Social, declared that the platform will be the inaugural one to introduce its own prediction market.
The prediction market will be titled “Truth Predict.”
Truth Social revealed an “exclusive partnership” with Crypto.com to facilitate the prediction market’s launch.
“We are excited to be the first publicly traded social media platform worldwide to provide our users access to prediction markets,” stated Devin Nunes, Chairman and CEO of Trump Media. “Truth Predict will enable our dedicated users to engage in prediction markets with a reliable network while leveraging our social media platform to offer distinctive methods for users to discuss and compare their predictions.”
Currently, Polymarket and Kalshi dominate the prediction market landscape. These services permit users to wager on a vast array of subjects, ranging from election outcomes or sports events to betting on whether a celebrity will perform a certain action by a specified date. Prediction markets avoid gambling regulations by providing “contracts” where users wager against each other rather than against the house. Polymarket and Kalshi do not bet on outcomes; instead, they profit through fees on each contract sold.
In recent years, prediction markets have surged in popularity. As the 2024 presidential election approaches, many have been monitoring predictions from platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, which are based on bets made as opposed to traditional polls. Now, even news organizations are utilizing these prediction markets when analyzing polling figures.
However, prediction markets have established a much more secure presence in the U.S. since Trump’s electoral victory. For instance, Polymarket was barred from operating in the U.S. starting in 2022 following a settlement with the Commodities and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The regulatory body accused Polymarket of operating an unregistered derivatives trading marketplace. The FBI even conducted a raid on the home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan in 2024 to investigate whether the firm was attempting to function within the country.
The investigation into Polymarket was closed by Trump’s Department of Justice in July of this year, allowing the company to resume operations in the U.S.
“Prediction markets are set to become a multi-deca-billion dollar sector,” commented Kris Marszalek, co-founder and CEO of Crypto.com, regarding the alliance with Truth Social.
This encapsulates the essence of why Trump Media is launching Truth Predict. As Wired highlights, the Trump family already possesses a financial stake in the prediction market sector. The President’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., serves as a strategic adviser at Kalshi. Trump Jr. is also part of Polymarket’s advisory board due to an investment from the VC firm where he is a partner.
It is already well recognized that President Trump and his family have minimal concerns about conflicts of interest or claims of corruption. They have previously explored opportunities in various cryptocurrency initiatives, which have reportedly netted the Trump family around $1 billion in just the past year.
If the President of the United States engages in an essentially unregulated gambling sector where individuals bet on potential developments in politics, business, sports, and more — what could possibly go wrong? Not much for the ultimate insider who can manipulate multiple scenarios like Trump.
As for the rest of the populace? Just inquire with the hundreds of thousands who lost money investing in Trump’s memecoin.