### The Future of Driverless Cars: What Lies Ahead

If you haven’t yet seen a self-driving car maneuvering through your city’s roads, that might change soon.

Waymo, a prominent player in the autonomous vehicle (AV) sector, is currently operational in Phoenix, San Francisco, and Los Angeles. This year, the company aims to extend its services to Atlanta and Austin through a collaboration with Uber. Waymo has also executed test drives in more than 25 cities as part of its vision to establish itself as “the most reliable driver worldwide.”

Other companies in the AV space, like Zoox and May Mobility, are also vigorously testing and rolling out their vehicles.

As autonomous technology becomes more prevalent, many are wondering if we are on the cusp of a transportation transformation. While personal vehicles are incorporating more autonomous capabilities—such as Tesla’s monitored self-driving feature—the situation is more intricate. The disparity between the potential of the technology and its actual performance in real-world scenarios is still considerable.

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## When Will Fully Autonomous Vehicles Be Available for Purchase?

To be clear, there is currently no fully self-driving vehicle available for sale, according to Jeff Farrah, CEO of the Autonomous Vehicle Industry Association (AVIA).

Even Tesla’s cars, despite CEO Elon Musk’s assertions that a fully autonomous driving mode is on the horizon, still necessitate driver supervision.

What consumers can purchase today are vehicles featuring partial automation, such as lane assistance, adaptive cruise control, and elementary navigation capabilities.

“At these levels of autonomy, human operators still hold a vital responsibility to regain control whenever needed,” Farrah articulates.

The repercussions of not doing so can be severe. In April 2024, a Tesla driver activated the Full Self-Driving (Supervised) function but became sidetracked by his phone. Moments later, he collided with and fatally injured a motorcyclist, despite Tesla’s system alerting him to remain vigilant.

Dr. Missy Cummings, a robotics and engineering professor at George Mason University, asserts that personally owned fully autonomous vehicles may not materialize within her lifetime.

“There’s a solid reason for that,” she remarks. “Even if we overcome the safety challenges, maintaining these vehicles entails immense demands.”

Self-driving vehicles depend on a range of sensors, including LIDAR and RADAR, to interpret their surroundings. These sensors need to be kept spotless and accurately calibrated to operate safely.

If regular vehicle maintenance is already a hassle, ensuring an AV remains in peak condition would be infinitely more challenging.

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## When Will Robotaxis Be Commonplace?

As AV services grow in major metropolitan areas, Kathy Winter, COO of May Mobility, believes the industry has hit a pivotal moment. Supported by Toyota, May Mobility is trialing driverless minivans in Michigan and Arizona and providing paid rides in Peachtree Corners, Georgia.

Amazon-owned Zoox has also initiated trials of its robotaxi in San Francisco, although rides are presently limited to employees of the company.

Waymo, which facilitates 150,000 paid rides weekly, has recently begun experimenting with driverless vehicles on Los Angeles freeways, with company staff aboard to offer feedback.

Despite these advancements, the widespread rollout of robotaxis across the U.S. remains a distant prospect. Introducing AVs in new locales is much more complicated than many might think.

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## How Do AV Companies Determine Where to Operate?

Certain cities present more obstacles for AVs due to road conditions, climate, and technological constraints. For instance, Zoox has mentioned no immediate intentions to function in snowy climates.

Even in relatively temperate San Francisco, rainfall can disrupt Waymo’s sensors, as noted by Jeffrey Tumlin, former director of transportation for the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency.

The intricate road layout, heavy pedestrian activity, and frequent unpredictable occurrences in San Francisco, such as protests and motorcades, created challenges for Waymo that were less prevalent in Phoenix, where the roads are more straightforward and less crowded.

Waymo’s strategy involves learning from each city it enters, simplifying future expansions. Moving from San Francisco to Los Angeles, for instance, went quite smoothly. The company also focuses on high-demand ride-hailing markets.

Beyond technical challenges, AV enterprises face regulatory obstacles. Numerous cities and states have yet to permit AVs on public roads, necessitating collaborations with legislators to amend laws.

Public skepticism is another factor to consider. Surveys indicate that a considerable number of individuals are hesitant about AVs until they experience them directly. To foster trust, companies prioritize safety and meticulously plan their launch strategies.

“Regrettably, a few high-profile incidents have hindered the industry’s progress in terms of public trust,” Winter acknowledges.

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## Is It Safe to Use Autonomous Vehicles?

One of the most notorious AV incidents took place in San Francisco in October 2023, when a Cruise robotaxi collided with a pedestrian and dragged her 20 feet before halting. The victim survived, but Cruise halted operations and faced a fine of $1.5