Title: Did AI Influence Trump’s Tariff Strategy? Experts Are Raising Concerns

As the world focuses on former President Donald Trump’s extensive new tariffs — potentially affecting nearly every nation and possibly increasing prices on consumer electronics like the iPhone — a troubling question has surfaced: Did the Trump administration utilize artificial intelligence to set these tariffs?

While it may seem implausible, some analysts are questioning the methods employed in what is referred to as the “Reciprocal Tariffs” table. Though still in the works, this document could turn out to be one of the most significant trade policy frameworks in modern history. Nevertheless, the calculations behind it have triggered doubts.

Although labeled “reciprocal,” the tariffs do not seem to embody a genuine tit-for-tat strategy. Rather, the formula utilized appears surprisingly rudimentary. Reports suggest that the administration might have computed tariffs by taking the U.S. trade deficit with a specified country, dividing that figure by the total imports from that country, and then halving the outcome. Crucially, this method overlooks whether that country imposes tariffs on U.S. goods — an essential aspect in any reciprocal trade framework.

Finance journalist James Surowiecki noted that the White House’s justification of its approach only validated that this basic formula was indeed applied.

Compounding the confusion, the list of countries and territories affected by tariffs features some surprising entries — including regions with no permanent population. This has spurred a flurry of online humor and memes, particularly involving penguins, after it came to light that certain Antarctic territories were included.

Tech creator Gordon Chapman intensified speculation when he shared on Threads that the tariff list seemed more reflective of internet top-level domains than actual countries — a possible indication that an AI tool might have compiled the list. Chapman later retracted this assertion, proposing that the data likely stemmed from U.S. Census Bureau trade figures.

So, who actually performed the calculations?

That remains uncertain. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick contended that economists at the United States Trade Representative (USTR) had been developing the tariffs for several years. However, some trade specialists have dismissed the final outcome as lacking a coherent methodology, labeling the numbers as “nonsense.”

Interestingly, when individuals ask large language models like ChatGPT for a straightforward method to calculate tariffs, the AI often yields a formula that closely resembles the one reportedly employed by the Trump administration. This coincidence has only intensified suspicions.

What lies ahead?

The tariff figures may ultimately act as a preliminary basis for discussions rather than a definitive policy. Eric Trump hinted at this tactic in a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), implying that nations that engage in trade discussions with his father early on would have an advantage over those that delay.

Nevertheless, if AI did play a role in formulating the tariff policy, it raises significant questions regarding the decision-making process. It would align with a trend of dubious technology use by the Trump administration, such as the reported use of Signal — a secure messaging application — for military planning, which inadvertently included a journalist in the discussion.

While there’s no conclusive evidence that ChatGPT or a similar AI tool was employed in the tariff calculations, the similarities are noteworthy. Even the AI models caution that their outputs are oversimplified and not appropriate for real-world policy decisions — a warning that should not be ignored.

As the conversation continues, one aspect is evident: Whether crafted by humans or machines, the rationale behind these tariffs warrants closer examination.