### Asteroid 2024 YR4: A Possible Close Approach to Earth

A newly identified asteroid, **2024 YR4**, is anticipated to come close to **Earth** in 2032. Although the chances of an impact are minimal, astronomers are in the process of fine-tuning their observations, indicating that the likelihood may vary.

As of **January 31, 2024**, the anticipated impact probability was **1.4%**. By **February 7**, NASA revised the chances to **2.3%**, indicating a **97.7% likelihood** that the asteroid will completely miss Earth. Yet, this uptick is not uncommon—impact probabilities frequently increase before declining or being excluded entirely.

*”It’s not unexpected that the percentage has risen,”* said Bruce Betts, chief scientist at **The Planetary Society**. He reassured that, despite the rising figures appearing alarming, the asteroid is still significantly more inclined to avoid Earth than collide with it.

### Why Researchers Are Vigilantly Observing 2024 YR4

The asteroid was initially identified by a **NASA-funded telescope** associated with the **Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS)**. Given its dimensions—estimated between **130 to 300 feet across**—it has been categorized as an object deserving of attention.

NASA pointed out that **no other known substantial asteroids currently have an impact probability exceeding 1%**. If 2024 YR4 were to collide with Earth, it could result in considerable damage, potentially comparable to the **Meteor Crater** in Arizona, which was formed by an asteroid **100 to 170 feet wide** approximately **50,000 years ago**.

In the coming months, astronomers will improve their calculations regarding the asteroid’s orbit. As it journeys further from Earth, monitoring will become increasingly difficult, but it will make a return in **2028** for additional examination.

### How Impact Probabilities Evolve Over Time

As scientists accumulate more information, the asteroid’s **risk corridor**—the zone of uncertainty in its path—will contract. Initially, this might temporarily raise the impact likelihood because Earth may still be situated within this decreasing zone.

*”Earth occupies a larger share of that uncertain area,”* Betts clarified. *”Thus, the percentage for impact rises.”*

However, as more accurate observations are conducted, the asteroid’s predicted trajectory will likely steer away from Earth. This situation previously occurred with **Apophis**, a **1,100-foot-wide** asteroid that was once believed to have a slight chance of striking Earth in **2029 or 2036**. Subsequent calculations dismissed an impact, reducing the probability to **zero**.

### What If 2024 YR4 Were to Strike Earth?

Even in the improbable scenario of a collision, it wouldn’t necessarily lead to catastrophe. Given that **over 70% of Earth is ocean**, there’s a significant likelihood the asteroid would land in an isolated location.

If it were headed toward a densely populated area, space agencies such as **NASA** and the **European Space Agency (ESA)** would closely observe the circumstances. If needed, NASA could issue its **first-ever asteroid alert**, permitting time for evacuations.

Looking ahead, humanity may even develop the capability to **divert** a threatening asteroid. NASA has already showcased this potential with its **DART mission** in 2022, successfully modifying the orbit of a non-threatening asteroid. Nonetheless, this technology is not yet prepared for immediate use.

### Should We Be Concerned?

While the chances of an impact stay low, scientists will persist in monitoring 2024 YR4 to enhance their forecasts. If the likelihood briefly increases, it’s not necessarily a reason to panic—it’s merely a component of the process of refining the asteroid’s trajectory.

*”This is a legitimate concern,”* Betts conceded. *”But such occurrences are quite rare.”*

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## The Dangers of Asteroid Impacts

Asteroids and **comets** of varying sizes frequently penetrate Earth’s atmosphere. While most disintegrate without incident, some can pose threats:

– **Every day**, around **100 tons** of dust and sand-sized debris enter Earth’s atmosphere.
– **Every year**, an **automobile-sized asteroid** penetrates the atmosphere and detonates.
– **Every 10,000 to 20,000 years**, an asteroid **approximately 460 feet wide** collides with Earth.
– **Once every 100 million years**, a **dinosaur-extinguishing asteroid**—half a mile wide or larger—hits the planet.

The detection of 2024 YR4 underscores the significance of **planetary defense** initiatives. While the risk of impact is minimal, ongoing surveillance and advancements in asteroid deflection technologies could be crucial in safeguarding Earth from potential future dangers.