An asteroid identified late last year is expected to approach our cosmic vicinity in 2032. The positive news? It’s not on a collision course with Earth.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is no longer observable, but NASA secured a final sighting with the James Webb Space Telescope in May prior to its vanishing. These recent observations have fine-tuned forecasts about its path.
Most of the rocky remnants from the solar system’s creation 4.6 billion years ago are too far away to pose a danger to Earth. Nonetheless, the minimal possibility of a disaster motivates numerous entities to keep an eye on ancient asteroids and comets navigating through space. Nobody desires a recurrence of the dinosaurs’ demise.
Revised calculations have raised the likelihood of the asteroid impacting the moon on December 22, 2032, from 3.8 percent to 4.3 percent.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 drew attention shortly after its discovery due to a slim possibility of striking Earth. The object, thought to be between 130 and 300 feet in width, is substantial enough to be classified as a “city killer.” Research on the Meteor Crater close to Flagstaff, Arizona, indicates it was caused by an asteroid approximately 100 to 170 feet wide 50,000 years ago.
“A comparable-sized impact event today could devastate a city the size of Kansas City,” noted David Kring, an expert in impact cratering at the Lunar and Planetary Institute, in a NASA blog.
Following months of observation and orbital adjustments for Asteroid 2024 YR4, NASA scientists have excluded the possibility of an Earth impact. According to the agency, there is no genuine threat to the planet in seven years or beyond. Currently, the only potential target for the space rock is the moon.
Before you fret, take a breath. It’s not as concerning as it might seem. The updated statistics, examined by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, still indicate that the asteroid is more likely to evade any impact. Even in the event of a strike, it wouldn’t pose a problem for Earth.
“In the unlikely event that the asteroid were to strike, it would not change the moon’s trajectory,” the agency stated.
In reality, if it were to collide with the moon, it might thrill some astronomers with the chance to study and collect data on the impact. An asteroid collision would generate a new lunar crater, an occurrence the moon is familiar with, offering fresh insights for scientists on such impacts.
Countries are establishing warning systems and defense strategies for potential asteroid or comet threats to Earth. As a trial, NASA initiated the DART mission in 2022 to intentionally crash into a benign asteroid. The mission successfully altered Dimorphos’s orbital course slightly, demonstrating the agency’s capability to redirect a dangerous space rock if required. Researchers are still examining the asteroid to gain further understanding of the consequences.
Initial tracking of asteroids inherently involves ambiguity, but accuracy advances with each observation. The forecast for Asteroid 2024 YR4’s position is now approximately 20 percent more accurate than it was previously, according to NASA.
Scientists will need to await three years, when the asteroid approaches Earth again, for another observation. NASA plans to track it again in 2028 for continuous monitoring of its trajectory.